Value for Money of HS2 Route Drops by 40% in Two Years

The economic case for constructing HS2 has fallen by 40% since the plan was first unveiled two years ago, according to the Government's own figures. In March, 2010, the high speed rail route had a benefit:cost ratio of 2.4:1. By the time the consultation on the detailed route was launched in March, 2011, the benefit ratio had fallen to 1.6:1.

The Department for Transport has now said that the BCR has fallen further to 1.4:1 and the figure would be 1.3:1 if the revised short-run GDP forecasts issued by the Office of Budget Responsibility in November last year were used. These ratios put the scheme in the Department's low value for money category (BCR of 1 - 1.5)

Of the £44.1 billion of the full Y network in the intitial  BCR calculations, journey time savings account for the largest slice - £24.5 bn - followed by less overcrowding (£6.7 bn) and reliability (£5.2 bn).

Local Transport Today

19 January